The conference 'The Politics of Central Asian and Caspian Energy' will discuss the political context in which decisions to develop energy resources are taken, and the extent of the possibilities for their extraction and export.

The Central Asian and Caspian energy market

The huge oil and gas reserves of Central Asia and the Caspian have long attracted the interest of investors and governments in Russia, China and the West. However, the challenges to the investor are various and complex. The answer to two key questions is still far from clear:

Who will be allowed to extract the hydrocarbons, and where will they be sent?

An uncertain investment climate in some states of the region, geopolitical jostling between the major powers, and a tension between political and business interests means the future development of the region's abundant energy resources is difficult to predict. What is certain is that the domestic and international political context will play a crucial role in the development of the region's energy sector. With both East and West seeking to secure reliable and affordable energy, the economic and political stakes in the energy game are as high as ever.

DAY ONE
Tuesday 23 February 2010
Session One
Geopolitical Landscape

* How are the countries of the region managing their relations with their powerful neighbours? Is a 'multi-vectored' foreign policy a hedging of bets?
* How quickly will the region develop its oil and gas exports? How are countries in the region adapting to fluctuations in resource demand and pricing?
* How has the global financial crisis affected the Caspian energy picture?
* How will US-Russia-China relations impact on Central Asia? Will the region remain an area of geopolitical and economic competition?

Session Two
Energy

* What are the prospects for further diversification of foreign partners and export routes?
* Will the region respond to international concerns about energy security with increased openness about reserves and investment plans?
* How are relations amongst the countries of the Caspian affecting decisions about future transit routes for oil and gas?
* To what extent is energy a tool of foreign policy in the region?
* The rise of national oil and gas companies: what are the prospects for partnerships with International Oil Companies?

Session Three
Russia's Energy Strategy in Central Asia and the Caspian

* Is Russia's domestic oil and gas industry in decline?
* What is the nature of Russia's current political relationship with the Caspian region? What are the longer term ramifications?
* Has Russia's near monopoly in the region been broken?

Session Four
China's Energy Strategy in Central Asia and the Caspian

* Securing export routes from Central Asia: the Chinese approach
* How does the Chinese approach differ?
* Is China's growing presence inevitable? What could be the consequences for the region? And for other major energy consumers and producers?

DAY TWO
Wednesday 24 February 2010
Session Five
US and European Energy Strategies in Central Asia and the Caspian

* What form will Europe's southern corridor for Caspian Energy take?
* The impact of Russian policy on European energy security
* What are the criteria used by countries such as Azerbaijan and Turkey in deciding transit strategies?
* What are the key political determinants of future energy transit routes to Europe from Central Asia?

Session Six
Good Governance and the Business Climate

* What are the implications of non-transparency and corruption in the energy sector both for internal decision-making processes and foreign investors?
* Great game or great gamble? To what extent can investors rely on the rule of law? Are the terms for foreign investment likely to change?
* Investment law and banking reform: are the policies conducive to investment? How do companies reconcile compliance requirements with local business practices?
* Are anti-corruption measures any more than window-dressing?

© The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2009